Operationalizing Impact-Based Forecasting through the Localization of Decision Support Systems for the Agriculture and DRR Sectors Project
The Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES), in partnership with the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) has commenced the third phase of the project named “Operationalizing Impact-Based Forecasting through the Localization of Decision Support Systems for the Agriculture and DRR Sectors.” The initiative is supported by the ESCAP Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness in the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asian Countries.
Background
The project contributes to the global Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative, which is anchored on an end-to-end multi-hazard early warning system encompassing risk knowledge, observation, forecasting, communication, and response. Within the agriculture and disaster risk reduction (DRR) sectors, risks can be significantly reduced when timely, tailored climate information reaches decision-makers. Decision support systems (DSS) enable this by automating impact-based forecasting, risk assessment, advisory formulation, and the communication of forecasts, potential impacts, and recommended actions.
Phase III builds directly on the achievements of Phase 2, under which RIMES strengthened impact-based forecasting (IBF) capacities across nine countries and customized the Specialized Expert System for Agro-Meteorology Early Warning (SESAME) for the agriculture sector. While these efforts delivered substantial gains, project evaluations identified residual gaps requiring attention: the need to further localize, deploy, and pilot-test agricultural DSS tools; to develop other sector-specific systems; to establish data-sharing mechanisms; and to extend climate services to last-mile users. Phase III has been designed to address these gaps.
The project supports five beneficiary countries — Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Sri Lanka, and, newly added under this phase, Thailand. Work in Fiji, Samoa, and Sri Lanka centers on the agriculture sector, while efforts in Papua New Guinea focus on disaster risk management. As a new beneficiary, Thailand receives targeted support focused exclusively on IBF capacity building, laying institutional and technical foundations for future system rollout. The project will be implemented over 24 months, till the end of 2027
Target Activities
The project delivers four interconnected lines of work. First, it establishes institutional frameworks and data-sharing agreements between national meteorological and hydrological services and sectoral agencies to facilitate the operationalization of IBF. Second, it strengthens capacities for the delivery and communication of climate and IBF services for the agriculture and DRR sectors. Third, it customizes, localizes, and pilot-tests decision support systems for priority sectors. Fourth, it conducts climate and farmer field schools to help local stakeholders, communities, and farmers integrate weather and climate information into their decision-making.
In Thailand, activities focus on establishing a Technical Working Group, developing an IBF training curriculum, and delivering introductory training for the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) and relevant institutions across various sectors related to disaster risk management.
Expected Outcome
The project aims to enable weather- and climate-risk-informed decision-making in the agriculture sectors of Fiji, Samoa, and Sri Lanka and in the disaster risk management sector of Papua New Guinea, while strengthening foundational institutional capacity for IBF in Thailand. Ultimately, it seeks to enhance the climate resilience of last-mile communities through improved access to, and application of, early warnings and agrometeorological advisories.