Below normal rainfall is most likely during the 2026 southwest monsoon season (June – September) over most parts of South Asia, particularly across the central parts of the region. However, some areas over the north-western, northeastern, and parts of the southern region are likely to experience normal to above normal rainfall.  

During the season, minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be above normal across most of South Asia.  

This regional climate outlook for the 2026 Southwest monsoon season over South Asia was jointly prepared by the nine National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of the region, with support from international experts at the 34th session of South Asian Climate Outlook Forum held in Malé, Maldives. The process involved an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions, national level forecasts and forecasts from different climate forecasting agencies around the world.  

Currently, ENSO-neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific are transitioning toward an El Niño conditions. Based on the global climate model forecasts, there is strong consensus among experts that the El Niño conditions are likely to develop during the 2026 monsoon season. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions currently prevail over the Indian Ocean, and climate models indicate that a positive IOD phase is likely to emerge later in the monsoon season.    

It is recognized that the global climate model predictions prior to and during the spring season generally have noticeable uncertainty due to spring barrier in the seasonal predictability. It is also noted that other regional and global factors as well as the intra-seasonal features of the region can also affect the seasonal climate patterns over the region.  

For more information and further updates on the southwest monsoon outlook on national scale, the respective National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) may be consulted.

The Twenty-fifth session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-25) was organised by the Ministry of Water 
Resources and Meteorology, Cambodia (MOWRAM), RIMES, ASMC, the ASEANCOF Working Group, UN ESCAP, and WMO. Participants from the NMHSs of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the boreal winter monsoon 2025/2026 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for the December-January-February 2025/2026 outlook was achieved through an online session, which included presentations from different NMHSs, questionnaires, and discussions regarding the current climate conditions and predictions for Southeast Asia.

The first Cyclone Impact Forecasting Toolkit for Bangladesh

In Bangladesh, a country disproportionately affected by cyclones originating in the Bay of Bengal, early warning systems have historically reduced fatalities through timely alerts and infrastructure improvements. However, generic forecasts often fail to address the nuanced vulnerabilities of individual communities, resulting in varied impacts across the region with different livelihood sectoral damage.

The critical challenge lies not in predicting what the weather will be but in communicating what the weather will do. While vital, traditional hazard-centric forecasts lack granularity in translating meteorological data into localized consequences. This limitation leaves disaster managers and communities unprepared to prioritize resources or implement targeted interventions, particularly in regions with heterogeneous exposure and vulnerability profiles.

This Cyclone Impact Forecasting (IF) Toolkit demonstrates the paradigm shift toward impact-based decision-making. By integrating high-resolution hazard forecasts with dynamic vulnerability indices and sector-specific exposure data, this methodology enables the generation of location-specific impact scenarios. Grounded in multidisciplinary collaboration, the toolkit synthesizes advanced forecast products, socio-economic datasets, and remote sensing insights to quantify risks at both national (district) and sub-district (upazila) levels. 

Developed in partnership with the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) and the Department of Disaster Management (DDM), this toolkit emphasizes operational scalability of IbF and IF specially for compound hazards like tropical cyclones. It leverages Bangladesh’s existing early warning infrastructure while incorporating national and sub-national-level socioeconomic and exposure data to generate detailed impact scenarios. 

Access the toolkit here: https://tinyurl.com/RIMES-IFToolkit

Statement on the Seasonal Climate Outlook over South Asia for the 2025 Southwest Monsoon Season

This regional climate outlook for the 2025 southwest monsoon season (June-September) over South Asia has been collaboratively developed by all nine National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of South Asia with the support from international experts at the 31st session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-31) conducted at Pune, India. The process involved an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions, national level forecasts and forecasts from different climate forecasting agencies around the world.

Read the full report: 

Consensus Bulletin for June-July-August (JJA) 2025 Season

Organised by the Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology, Cambodia (MOWRAM), RIMES, ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), the ASEANCOF Working Group, and World Meteorological Organization (WMO), participants of the ASEANCOF-24 developed a consensus forecast for the boreal summer monsoon 2025 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for the June-July-August (JJA) 2025 outlook was achieved through a hybrid session, which included presentations from NMHSs, questionnaires, and discussions regarding the current climate conditions and predictions for Southeast Asia.

Read the full report: 

Since October 2023, Save the Children, in collaboration with RIMES and MJSKS, has executed a project under the Humanitarian
Fund titled ‘El Niño Anticipatory Actions to Drought and Heatwave in Bangladesh.’ Both these upazilas are susceptible to heatwave and drought; while drought adversely impacts food security, heatwaves severely affect the health of community members, particularly those employed in outdoor jobs. This can lead to socio-economic challenges, lower agricultural production, and a heightened demand for resources such as electricity.

The objectives of this assessment are to:

• Assess the existing situation of the local community through the lens of their economic and social well-being;
• Identify the effectiveness of the early warning system and quantify the loss minimized through the initiatives taken;
• Identify the impact on agriculture, livestock, and relevant sectors from the context of the community; and
• Ensure that people’s fatalities, health illnesses, and economic losses are reduced by taking timely and effective early actions against the impacts of heat stress.

This report was developed through the joint efforts of Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES), Save the Children, and Mahideb Jubo Somaj Kallayan Somity (MJSKS).

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and International Organization for Migration (IOM) are jointly implementing gender-transformational conflict prevention interventions in Hela and Southern Highlands under the UN Peacebuilding Fund-supported project “Preventing Climate-Induced Conflicts Through Empowered Women Leadership”. The project aims to empower women leaders to become conflict-sensitive community resilience activists by conducting trainings, sharing best practices, strengthening inclusive peacebuilder networks and supporting gender equality. It also supports efforts to raise awareness of women’s rights, increase access to information resources as well as advance the inclusion of women in community decision-making. 

To guide these interventions, UNDP commissioned the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES) to conduct a Downscaled Climate Risk Assessment focusing on Hela and Southern Highlands Provinces to help identify high-risk communities and customize interventions to enhance community resilience against climate shocks. The assessment was expected to inform the drafting of provincial and sub-provincial development plans, including the Community Peace for Development Plans (CPDPs).

Access the full report here: Climate Risk Assessment Report Focusing on Hela and Southern Highlands Provinces

Did you know? Every year, 11 million metric tons of plastic waste enter our oceans from land-based sources. That’s a staggering amount! This plastic debris not only harms marine life but also exacerbates climate change.

This 2024, RIMES is proud to collaborate with partners across Asia and the Pacific to tackle marine debris, a key driver of climate change. Coastal debris contributes to rising sea levels and extreme weather, while also releasing greenhouse gases and damaging ecosystems that store carbon. RIMES’s expertise in disaster risk reduction and hydrometeorological data supports efforts to protect our oceans and mitigate climate impacts. 

Together, we can reduce plastic pollution, protect coastal ecosystems, and turn the tide on climate change.

Take action today! Here’s what YOU can do: reduce your plastic use, participate in coastal cleanups, support policies that protect our oceans, and help raise awareness about the impacts of land-based pollution to climate change! 

Feel free to use the materials below to spread awareness all-year round. 

For more information about the #SeaTheChange movement, visit https://oceanconservancy.org/trash-free-seas/

PROJECT EVALUATION REPORT
Enhancing Weather and Climate Resilience in RIMES Member States through Capacity Building on Impact Forecasting – Phase II

RIMES conducted the second phase of the project, Enhancing weather and climate resilience in RIMES Member States through capacity building on impact forecasting”, from November 30, 2021 to February 29, 2024. The project aimed to contribute to building resilience to weather- and climate-related hazards by building capacity on impact forecasting in Bhutan, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Maldives, Sri Lanka in the Asian region, and Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, and Timor-Leste in the Pacific region.

This report is undertaken to evaluate RIMES’s implementation of the Phase II Project, with the following evaluation objectives:

• Provide an independent assessment of the relevance, coherence, efficiency, effectiveness, impact, and sustainability of the project; and

• Identify key lessons learned and propose recommendations for follow-up actions and for consideration in RIMES future program design, implementation, and management.

The findings of this evaluation shall be communicated to the United Nations (UN) Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), as part of RIMES accountability to the ESCAP Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness in Indian Ocean and Southeast Asian Countries, and its donors. Findings, particularly on the project’s contributions to enhancing the beneficiary-countries’ resilience to weather- and climate related hazards shall be communicated to RIMES Member States and to development partners in general, to advocate for replication. RIMES shall use findings of the evaluation for enhancing its project design, planning, and implementation strategies, as well as for guiding replication.

The climate outlook for the 2024 southwest monsoon season (June to September) was finalized during the 28thsession of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-28) held on 29 April 2024 at Pune, India. The session was attended by the experts representing the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of nine South Asian countries as well as those representing several global and regional climate agencies including World Meteorological Organization (WMO), WMO Regional Climate Centre(RCC) Pune, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Met Office, UK (UKMO), International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Regional Integrated Multi-hazard Early-warning System (RIMES), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) , Lead Centre of LRFMME, Korean Meteorological Agency etc. The forum deliberated on various observed and emerging climatic features that influence the performance of the southwest monsoon such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), winter and spring Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover, land surface temperature anomalies etc.

The ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) is an avenue to collaboratively develop consensus- based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale. The forum’s outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which is to conduct climate and seasonal prediction for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region through pooling the expertise of ASEAN National Meteorological and
Hydrological Services (NMHSs). In 2021, the ASEANCOF Working Group was established with the goal to guide and support the long-term development of ASEANCOF, in particular with regard to the implementation of objective outlooks.
 

The Twenty-Second session of ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-22) was organised by the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology of Lao PDR, RIMES, the ASEANCOF Working Group, and WMO. Participants from the NMHSs of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the boreal summer monsoon 2024 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for the June-July-August (JJA) 2024 outlook was achieved through a hybrid session, which included presentations from different NMHSs, questionnaires, and discussions regarding the current climate conditions and predictions for Southeast Asia. There was also two-day pre-COF training, conducted by the UK Met Office under the WISER Asia Pacific project and RIMES. The theme of ASEANCOF-22 was Agriculture and Climate Services, with a focus on drought. On the last day of ASEANCOF-22, a sharing session was held which included presentations from UN ESCAP, FAO, and WFP, as well as discussion on ways to improve ASEANCOF.
 

As a result of these discussions, outlook for maize and rice is included in the document.

Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES) supports its member countries to develop their capabilities in generating forecast and risk informed early warning and tailor-made applications at different time scales (1-15 days, monthly, seasonal etc.). In Bangladesh RIMES provided technical support to the Flood Forecasting Warning Center (FFWC) of Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) to develop and operationalize the 1-10 days probabilistic flood forecasting system. As part of RIMES commitment, the technical support to BWDB was continued beyond the project period to ensure that the system is operational during monsoon season. In addition to 10 days flood forecasting system, a Flash Flood Guidance System was also developed by RIMES for Sylhet and Cox’s Bazar region. Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) also gets regular technical support from RIMES for enhancing their numerical weather prediction system, conducting user forums and agro-meteorological advisory services. Through different innovative decision support systems, community-oriented capacity building programs to transform and tailor the forecast products to more sector oriented actionable format; RIMES has been working relentlessly to connect the science, institutions and society to reach the last mile of the end-users.

Strengthening Household Ability to Respond to Development Opportunities (SHOUHARDO) III program of CARE Bangladesh works with poor rural beneficiaries from 8 districts of the char and haor regions of Bangladesh. These beneficiaries are highly dependent on agriculture and livestock for their livelihood. By repeatedly being exposed to natural hazards, these communities do not have the capacity to buffer against the impacts of climate risk through their own assets which makes them the most vulnerable to disasters. The SHOUHARDO III sites and the nature of beneficiaries makes it an ideal program for piloting the application of weather and flood forecast information. To overcome the underlying risks of climate variability and furnish better agricultural/livestock production and disaster risk reduction, RIMES has implemented the project “Improved Weather and Flood Information System for Community Based Risk and Resource Management” under SHOUHARDO III program of CARE Bangladesh, supported by USAID and with complementary support from the Government of Bangladesh. Aiming towards the transition of ‘what the weather will be’ to ‘what the weather will do’; the project has made an effort to enable risk and resource management in poor and extreme poor communities by providing community focused and multi-sectoral action oriented forecast information that will enhance their resilience and eventually reduce livelihood risk. The project period was from July, 2019 to September, 2020.

For the past few decades, Bangladesh has shown significant progress in forecasting of flood, weather and other weather induced hazards. However, these forecasts rarely reach the at-risk communities with enough lead time to take any early action. Even if this information reaches the end-users, sometimes are difficult to interpret at the community level due to lack of capacity. So, it is crucial to improve lead time of the forecasts as well as interpret these forecasts into understandable and actionable advisories.

Access the report here: SHOUHARDO III – 2021