Day 1 Technical Session

Technical session will consider available seasonal prediction output from WMO Global Producing Centers (GPCs) and the Lead Centre for LRF MME together with presentation of country forecasts and discussions on methodology and tools to support an objective approach

Attendance - NMHSs, RCCs, GPCs, collaborating agencies and invited experts

Venue: Conference Hall, Hyacinth Hotel

Time

Item

Remarks

Session I     Operationalize Objective Procedures for Seasonal Forecast Co-Chair: Head CRS, IMD & RIMES

08:30 - 09:00

Registration

 

09:00 - 09.30

Opening session

  • Introductions followed by group photo

 

09:30 - 09:45

Review of NE Monsoon over South Asia Region, Dr. Jothiganesh, RIMES

 

09:45 - 10:00

Review of learning reference South Asian Region, Tamara Janes, UKMO

 

10:00 - 10:30

Introduction to FOCUS MME Tool for South Asia, RCC, IMD Pune & RIMES

 

10:40 - 11:10

Customized Seasonal Forecast IRI MapRoom Products for South Asia, Dr. Nachiketa Acharya, IRI

 

11:10 - 11:30

Coffee/Tea Break

 

Session II    SASCOF-15 forecast preparation

11:30 - 13:00

Country presentations -

Afghanistan (Mr. Mousawi Sayed Reza, AMD)
Bangladesh (Mr, S.M. Mahmudul Huque, BMD)
Bhutan (Mr. Phuntsho Wangmo, NCHM)
India (Dr. Divya Surendren, IMD)
Maldives (Ms. Azeema Ahmed, MMS)
Myanmar (Mr.Hla Tun, DMH)
Nepal (Mr. Subhash Rimal, DHM)
Pakistan (tbc)
Sri Lanka (Ms. Preethika Jayakoody, DoM)

  • Review of 2018 NE monsoon season
  • CPT exercise results
  • Discussion of Result of Forecast for the 2019 Oct - Dec season based on CPT tool

13:30 - 14:00

Lunch

 

14:00 - 15:00

Review of available forecasts from RCC and GPCs

Seasonal Climate assessment and products from Regional Climate Center - RCC, Pune, IMD (Dr. O. P. Sreejith)

 

15:00 - 15:15

Presentation on pre-consensus SASCOF15 forecast for OND 2019.

 

15:30 - 16:00

Preparation of First Draft of SASCOF-15 consensus statement

 

16:00 - 16:30

Coffee/Tea Break

 

16:30 - 17:30

Discussion on Objective procedure for Seasonal Forecast

 


Day 2 CSUF - Water Sector

Attendance - NMHSs, RCCs, GPCs, collaborating agencies and invited experts, user agencies connected to water sector from South Asia region, collaborating agencies, development partners - including World Bank, Regional UN bodies, invited participants representing water, irrigation and disaster management sector.

Venue: Hycinth Hotel, Thiruvanthapuram, India

Time

Item

Remarks

08:30 - 09:00

Registration for CSUF participants

Session III: Review the features of 2018 NE Monsoon Season and existing seasonal forecast products
Chair:                        Rapporteur:

09:00 - 09:20

Presentation on features of NE monsoon
Dr. Balachandran, RMC, IMD, Chennai

 

09:20 - 09:40

Presentation on Western Disturbance and associated systems over South Asia
Dr, Naresh Kumar, IMD, New Delhi

 

09:40 - 10:00

Review of extreme events from 2018 NE Monsoon in South Asia
Ms. Upeakshika, RIMES

 

10:00 - 10:20

IITM Extended Forecast Products for NE monsoon Season
(Dr. Susmitha, IITM)

 

10:20 - 10:40

NCMRWF Extended Forecast Products for NE Monsoon Season
(Dr. Ankur Gupta)

 

10:40 - 11:00

Coffee/Tea Break

 

Session IV: Enhancing the use of seasonal products in the user sector
Chair:                        Rapporteur:

11:00 - 11:30

Climate Services of IMD for Water and Health Sector.
(Dr. Pulak Guhathakurta, CRS, IMD, Pune)

 

11:30 - 12:00

Enhancing SASCOF outputs and products based on survey results and SASCOF-14 workshop
(Ms. Rebecca Parfitt, UKMO)

 

12:00 - 12:10

Presentation on SASCOF reporting format and concept by Anshul Agarwal, RIMES

 

12:00 - 13:30

Country presentations from the water sector representatives:

Feedback on application of seasonal forecasts 2018 NE and 2019 SW monsoon

Afghanistan (Ruhollah Beigi)
Bangladesh (Md. Abul Basher)
Bhutan (Tenzin Sonam)
India (tbc)
Maldives (Mr. Gasith Mohammand)
Myanmar (Mr. Aung Thurein Maw)
Nepal (Mr. Amit Prasad Timilsina)
Pakistan (tbc)
Sri Lanka (Ms. Talatha Janaki Meegastenna)

13:30 - 14:30

Lunch

 

Session V: Interactive Group discussions
Moderators and facilitators (tbc)

14:30 - 15:30

Group discussions:
Best practices adapted by user agencies in South Asian countries based on available seasonal forecasts during 2018 NE Monsoon season and 2019 SW Monsoon season

Guided discussions facilitated by RIMES and UKMO

15:30 - 16:00

Presentations by Group Leads:
Summarizing the best practices adapted based on weather and climate outlook
Brainstorming session on how these practices from the countries can be replicated in all SASCOF countries.

 

16:00 - 16:30

Coffee/Tea Break

 

16:30 - 17:00

Brief interventions from UN agencies representatives on application of seasonal forecasts in their planning
FAO-RAP, WFP, UNDRR

10 minutes each

17:00 - 17:30

Closing session

 


Day 3 Main SASCOF-15 Session & CSUF- Water Sector

Attendance - NMHSs, RCCs, GPCs, collaborating agencies and invited experts, all user agencies connected to water sector from South Asia region, collaborating agencies, development partners – including World Bank, Regional UN bodies, invited participants representing water, irrigation and disaster management sector

Venue: Hycinth Hotel, Thiruvananthapuram, India

Time

Item

Remarks

Session VI: Enhancing Climate Services in the Region
Chair:                        Rapporteur:

09:30 - 10:00

WMO efforts to enhance Climate Services, WMO Representative

 

10:00 - 10:30

International Research and Application Program (IRAP): Lessons learned from the Bihar case study, Dr. James Buizer, University of Arizona

 

10:30 - 11:00

Presentation on status of Monsoon Forums/NCOFs in SASCOF countries with a focus on improving the linkages of NMHSs with user sectors, by RIMES

 

11:00 - 11.30

Open discussions

 

11:30 - 12:30

Inauguration of the Main Session of SASCOF-15 & CSUF Followed by Group Photo

 

12:30- 14:00

Lunch

 

Session VII: SASCOF-15 Consensus forecast and its application for water sector
Chair:                        Rapporteur:

14:00 - 14:30

Background on seasonal prediction in the context of post-monsoon & winter season of South Asia and discussion on the 2019 consensus seasonal outlook, Dr. Pai, RCC, IMD, Pune

20 minutes presentation followed by 10 minutes discussions

14:30 - 15:15

Intervention from NMHSs experts on using the SASCOF-15 outlook in the national contexts and the plan to update it during the season

NMHSs can come with their expectations from RCCs and GPCs

15:15 - 16:00

Intervention from user sector participants on application of available forecast in their sector and updates required for better decision making during the season

Users can come with their expectations from NMHSs and how they will report back to SASCOF

16:00 - 16:30

Coffee/Tea Break

 

16:30 - 17:30

Discussion and closure of Day 2 of SASCOF-15 & CSUF-water