The consensus outlook indicates that there is uncertainty partly because of spring-time predictability limit and partly due to likely absence of any strong forcing from the Pacific or the Indian Ocean during the monsoon season.  It also indicates that the large-scale summer monsoon rainfall for South Asia and the season (June –September) as a whole will most likely be within the normal range with a slight tendency towards the higher side of the normal range. In terms of spatial distribution of rainfall, the more likely scenario is for below normal rainfall over some areas of northwestern and southern parts of South Asia and for above normal rainfall over some areas along the Himalayan region.

SASCOF-4 was preceded by a 3-day capacity building training workshop on “Long Range Prediction of Southwest Monsoon Rainfall” for participants from the South Asian countries. Dr. Dilip K. Gautam, RIMES Senior Hydrologist, delivered a presentation on “Monsoon Forum Initiative for Climate Forecast Application in Various Sectors”. The monsoon forums are regularly organized in member countries with support from RIMES to promote the application of climate forecasts in various sectors for the benefit of the people and the society.

Participants present at the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-4)

G-SPASE is a two-year international education program on multidisciplinary integration for space technology, geospatial information technology and social infrastructure. The curriculum focuses on the utilization of space technology to tackle societal issues on the ground. The program will be launched in April 2013, supported by the Japanese Ministry of Education.

Dr. Teraphan Ornthammarath, Seismic Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Scientist at RIMES, joined the International Symposium for G-SPASE Technology, celebrated on 3^rd -6^th of March in Tokyo, to share RIMES’s work on disaster risk reduction and how this field can be linked to space technology. According to Dr. Teraphan, “space technologies are becoming increasingly vital to modern day disaster management activities. Its application could offer us more tools to better respond to natural disasters”.

IIHS has recently launched India’s first interdisciplinary full-time practice based program in urban development to address India’s complex urban challenges. As part of the program, practitioners have completed a training and exposure visit at RIMES Facility on 14^th of March. Participants were able to understand the situation in Bangkok regarding flood management and preparedness, as well as RIMES’s work in early warning systems.

 Practitioners from IIHS receiving a presentation by RIMES staff about the flood forecasting

From 10^th-15^th of February, BRAC professionals participated in a training and exposure visit on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation organized by RIMES to build the NGO capacity on disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation, food security and agriculture risk management. As part of the program, RIMES organized field visits in Thailand for BRAC staff: Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA), the Department of Disaster Preparedness and Mitigation (DDPM), the Royal Irrigation Project on flood risk management and the Agriculture Project in Chasoansoa Province.

Visit of BRAC to Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA)

Founded in 1959, AIT operates as a self-contained international community at its main campus located in Pathumthani, Thailand. It also delivers some of its programs at its centers in Vietnam and Indonesia. AIT is an International Intergovernmental Organization that carries out the following mission: “to develop highly qualified and committed professionals who play a leading role in the region’s sustainable development and its integration into the global economy” by supporting technological change and sustainable development through higher learning, research, capacity building and outreach.

The Prospectus/Course Catalogue 2012-2013 can be found in the following link: AIT Prospectus Catalogue 2012 -2013

Results show that model resolution has less effect on track prediction.  Model runs at 3km resolution gave slightly better predictions of central pressure drop and maximum wind, as well as typhoon motion speed.  Track forecast error increases almost linearly up to 48 hours of simulations, and thereafter diverges quickly.  At both resolutions, the WRF model simulates the salient features (e.g. warm central core, radial increase of wind speed, etc.) of typhoons.

The authors of this research are Dr. Jayaraman Potty, Dr. P.V.S. Raju, Prof. U. C. Mohanty (Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, India), and S.M. Oo (Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), Myanmar). The last author participated in RIMES Secondment Program from 2008-2010, receiving training on WRF and climate change modeling.  Mr. Oo contributed significantly to DMH inputs to the country’s initial national communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).  The paper is available at SpringerLink:

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11069-011-0074-4

Under this flood early warning system, forecasts of up to 10 days lead time provide information on flood onset, duration, and recession.  This forecast lead time offers sufficient time for forecast interpretation and translation by resource and disaster managers, and communication of associated risks and appropriate responses through established communication channels, such as short message service (SMS) bulletins.  The US-based Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) developed the flood forecasting model in collaboration with the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).  A strong institutional network, involving a National Steering Committee and local working groups consisting of Union Disaster Management Committees and partner NGOs, was established for demonstration of forecast application in reducing disaster risks.  Capacity of Bangladeshi scientists to manage the flood forecast technology was built, and people in pilot communities were trained to understand and use the forecast in decision-making.

Utility of the probabilistic forecast was demonstrated in the July-August 2007 floods.  Local government organizations, NGOs, and community-based organizations planned for and mobilized resources for emergency response, and people stored food and drinking water for 15 days, anticipating that relief usually comes 7 days after the initial flooding only, secured cooking stoves and firewood, moved livestock to higher ground and stored animal fodder, abandoned paddy transplanting and secured additional seeds for use after the floods, and planned for alternative livelihoods for the flood duration.  An evaluation of the economic benefit of the flood early warning system revealed a return of investment of USD 559 for each dollar of investment.

RIMES assists in the further development and transfer of the flood forecasting technology to Bangladeshi institutions, and continues to engage with local level institutions in forecast application.  Benefits of this dialogue process between scientists and communities are highlighted in the article written by Emma Visman of the King’s College London, Benedict Dempsey of Save the Children (London), and SHM Fakhruddin of RIMES, for the SciDev.Net, which could be found at:

http://www.scidev.net/en/agriculture-and-environment/improving-early-warning-of-disasters/opinions/understanding-uncertainty-to-prevent-humanitarian-crises-1.html 

1. Build tsunami hazard and risk assessment capacities in Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Thailand, building on UNESCO/IOC efforts in the Indian Ocean region and taking advantage of low-cost methodologies developed at RIMES
2. Develop a regional data sharing policy for RIMES Member States and collaborating countries, for improving data availability for warning purposes

1. Project initiation
2. Training on near-shore field surveys
3. Training on survey data processing and DEM generation
4. Training on tsunami risk assessment and evacuation mapping
5. Exercise manual adaptation and evacuation map testing
6. Regional resource sharing policy and mechanism development

1. Tsunami risk assessment capacities built within relevant/mandated technical agencies
   - Number trained in near-shore bathymetric, topographic, and exposure surveys
   - Number trained in data preparation and management
   - Number trained in tsunami hazard and risk assessment
   - Number of agencies that received survey methodology, equipment, and materials, and software for data preparation
   - Number of agencies that received INSPIRE system
2. Improved tsunami warning and response capabilities within national tsunami warning centers and disaster management organizations and communities
   - Number trained in interpretation and use of tsunami risk maps
   - Number trained in data preparation and management, and evacuation mapping using ESCAPE .
   - Number practiced in tsunami evacuation using ESCAPE outputs and UNESCO/IOC guidelines
   - Number of NDMOS that received ESCAPE system and manual on multi-hazard exercise planning, implementation, and evaluation
3. Regional resource sharing for improved warning information generation and dissemination
   - Regional data sharing policy and mechanism
   - Mechanism for regional online interaction of forecasters during extreme events
   - Number of countries, not covered by the project, that learn from project experiences and identify activities and funding sources for replication

• Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (focal point)
• National Hydrographic Center
• Department of Land Survey
• Relief and Resettlement Department
• General Administration Department

• Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (focal point)
• National Mapping and Resource Information Authority
• National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council

• Disaster Management Center (focal point)
• Department of Meteorology
• National Aquatic Resources Research and Development Agency
• Survey Department
• Coast Conservation Department

• Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation

Organized by the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES), GNS Science New Zealand, Geoscience Australia, and Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), participants discussed about the developments in the region on the GEM Faulted Earth (GFE) project, which aims at creating a global active fault, fold, and fault source database with a common set of strategies, standards and formats, for integration into OpenQuake, the software developed by GEM for seismic hazard and risk calculations.  The database aims to be flexible enough to capture existing, new, and variable data, and at the same time, not be too onerous to enter new data from areas where existing databases are not available. In collaboration with GEM’s Model Facility, an interactive web GIS tool has been developed to draw and capture new fault data, which can be directly uploaded to the database after validation.  Demonstrations on the use of the GFE tool were provided to participants.

According to Dr. Teraphan Ornthammarath, Seismic Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Scientist at RIMES, in the past, different groups of scientists independently developed seismic hazard and risk assessment tools, based on different qualities of data and assumption, resulting in contradicting earthquake damage scenarios. “The GEM initiative would provide a platform for earthquake engineers, seismologists, geophysicists, geologists, and anyone in this field to come and work together on uniform global database, methodologies, and tools. We are delighted with this initiative and we would like RIMES Member and Collaborating States to be part of it by inviting their government agencies who have a mandate to perform this task”, says Dr. Teraphan.  Of the 9 countries represented in the workshop (Australia, Indonesia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam), 6 are RIMES Member and Collaborating States.

Participants during the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) South East Asia Regional Active Fault Workshop

The GEM initiative is driven by the GEM Foundation, a public-private partnership that drives a collaborative effort, aimed at developing and deploying tools and resources for earthquake risk assessment worldwide.  Hundreds of organizations and individual experts, professionals, and practitioners are working together on uniform global databases, methodologies, tools and open-source software in this regard.